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Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".
Fellow idiots, I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse. TL;DR at the bottom. Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too. Point 2:The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them. Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10. Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth.. Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point. Point 6:Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment. Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too. Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point. Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now? Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment. Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid. TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing. Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
US treasuries still have room to run (before the autists say that's not yolo enough you could trade OTM calls on UST-linked ETFs, US govvie futures for gainz)
Sell SPX companies with big supply chain exposure and heavy cost of capital, buy their competitors without these features.
Open up apparel factories in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and sell to the US.
Buy soybeans assuming farmers get a bailout from US
I am sure there are plenty of China based ETFs which could be played, DYOR.
Short any US listed company with mainland China domicile. If shit REALLY hits the fan between US/China, there are levers that US Govt. can pull to fuck them.
Hello, Just wanted to share some of my legitimate concerns around decentralised finance with the broader community. To be quite clear - I am a huge fan of Ethereum and DeFi and believe this could lead to the future of finance. However, I do worry if there is a circle jerk within the community that could lead to a lack of adoption in the coming months. I will try and keep this as short as possible. By all means, do understand I am coming from the pov of sharing constructive criticism and not dissing on the efforts of those building. If you are solving for these problems in particular, please ping me and I'd love to talk further with you
On-ramps The largest problem for much of the developing world is the fact that while DAI can without doubt give dollar exposure, acquiring them is quite a difficult task. In fact if DAI demand goes up substantially in a region, it could have premiums of upto 25% which makes it a bad on-ramp tool without necessary liquidity in place. (check Wazir X p2p USDT rates in India for context). This problem is not endemic to DAI alone but is applicable to stable tokens of all kinds. With regional regulations in nations like Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Phillipines, Malaysia and India not being clear on stable tokens in particular, it becomes an uphill task for developers to build on it. More importantly, it becomes less appealing for the average individual to use. Now typically this wouldnt matter if the point of DeFi was to be a niche project aimed at a small community. However, DeFi has the power to be the first mass market blockchain tool for the world. Consider it to be the "e-mail" or "napster" moment for blockchain based applications. IF we are to scale then on-ramps and off-ramps need to be solved for. This can happen only and if the community begins engaging with regional regulators and exchanges begin providing solutions. In an ideal world, acquiring stable tokens should be as easy as venmo'ing someone $10 dollar and receiving say $9.90 (1% fee) in Incento (incento.io seems interesting, not shilling but do check them out!)
Incumbent Efficiency In order for a system to scale past a certain point, the value add it brings needs to be considerably higher than the incumbent. Depending on the size of the remittance market, there exists multiple payments and wire transfer corridors set up by startups today to solve for quick transfers. In fact during times when a blockchain like those of Ethereum's or Bitcoin's are clogged - transferwise can prove to be a cheaper, better alternative than tokens. This is not to diss on the fact that decentralisation and immutability has a price attached to them, but for the average user today alternatives are far better than token based products. The challenge when it comes to scaling - especially towards L2 is whether products can be incrementally better than their incumbents in exchange for some trade offs (eg: relative centralisation in lightning for minimal fees and quicker confirmation). Today's DeFi apps have to make a call between being ideological and efficient because it seems there is a price attached to ideology and retail users aren't willing to pay that price.
Slippage Much props to Kyber and Uniswap for solving for this on most DeFi apps but there remains challenges in how settlements for defi instruments today happen. As the scale of volume on products like DyDx and Nuo increase and the expected accuracy at which trade settlements are anticipated to be limited to, there will come a point in time where traditional market-makers will have to enter the system. At $500 million the DeFi space's largest traders constantly reel from price slippages and a lack of liquidity. How can we scale to $10 billion or $1 trillion without the kind of liquidity that could instill confidence in large whales. In order to solve this, there will come a point in time where hedge funds and dark pool service providers from traditional markets begin targetting DeFi instruments. The community will likely see this as an all out assault on the principles DeFi has been built upon but to be honest, this will be a quintessential requirement for the space to grow. We are seeing an early variant of this already with the likes of Cred raising $50 million to re-issue as debt (yes, not entirely DeFi) or with MakerDAO having VC partners that come from traditional backgrounds. Even in the case of products like Dharma and compound, the market-makers are hedge funds. We will see a convergence of traditional market products and DeFi soon. That will be an exciting phase imo.
Product-Market Fit Debt is one of the oldest financial innovations in the markets. Quite literally. Some of the first ever tablets recorded debt obligations and as such have been quintessential to the growth of human civilisation. MakerDAO's proposition of issuing token backed debt is by all means revolutionary but in order to see true scale, DeFi has to grow beyond the individuals that can give assets as collateral. I reckon there will be a new layer of growth for DeFi soon that will be powered with open-data and AI. One where an individual's credit worthiness could be checked with the individual's permission on basis of on-chain tx activity and self sovereign identity. I also see a market for AI based lending rate predictions and forex management by central banks. Autonomous agents can realistically analyse tx's in and out of a country, account for macro-economic indicators and optimise internal lending rates and foreign currency reserves. Ofcourse it is too early for any of this to take place but within the next decade our markets will be far more (i) closer due to globalisation and (ii) automated due to improvements in AI. DeFi is all well and good but if we are going to beat the same old drums of economic instruments that were created thousands of years back, there may be no real value proposition here. LsDAI, rDAI, CDAI, DAI... are all interesting but the average user sees no value yet. Which makes me wonder if we are sitting around patting each other's back before we see something productive (a unicorn from the DeFi ecosystem perhaps?)
Scale 4.5 billion. That's the number of unbanked individuals that can be catered to with an L2 payments solution powered by Ethereum. Challenges? On-ramp, storage of private keys, user education and bloody hell - marketing and user education. Emphasis on the last 2 because I feel not much focus is given on it. We can no longer build and hope the markets come. We are in an era of Zombie startups where startups with north of $100 million+ valuations in Mcap, that raised north of $10million in 2017 from ICOs are sitting on ~1000 users a month. People think the alts blood seepage is done but it is likely that that bleeding wont stop until we find users. And when we do find users, we cant expect them to be using a gazillion tokens, each with weird token economics and even more complex functioning to be using them. Standardising of token interactions through wallets and interoperability will solve for these challenges but its time we asked what are the biggest problems DeFi can solve today? Here are some hints.. NFT based Income share agreements -Non collateralised debt for gig economy corporations that are registered as DAOs -DAO treasury management -Forex off-ramps for tourists (P2P) More on these later..
A bit about me: I am from Indonesia and was born in the year 2000. English is my second language, sorry for the inconveniences. Like every other ordinary adolescence, after graduating from High School I was stuck with "Find Your Passion" mindset. (Looking back, I was quite a naïve person 🤣 or ambitious I suppose 🤭) So I embarked on a journey to find my passion, first I tried languages and figured out that it didn't pay that much and doesn't make that much of an impact on my community. Then I tried trading the forex market which I wasted a year of doing it and around $300 (this is my monthly salary), $150 of which got scammed and $150 I lost it because it was the last moment of me trading so i got emotional and lose it all and I also lost $20 of my friend's money which I paid him back. And after a few of Ted-Talks videos I have come to conclusion, that you should not find your passion. Confused? Me too! Hahaha. Let me explain, Passion is just an emotion, emotion follows action. Here's a perfect example: I hated school and every lesson that the school provides except for PE, I hated it. But I felt responsible to pass High School (yes only High School, because Primary & Junior High was easy🤭) so I became obsess to pass High School (we have big tests in approximately every 2 months) and found out that I have interest/passion in physics, math, biology and a bit of chemistry. I studied every day consistently from 7pm to 9pm never missed a day and still enjoy hanging out with friends, that is after school(3pm) and from 9pm to 10.30pm I just waste my time on watching the telly, you still need to keep the "work-life balance" right? And by only studying 2 hours everyday consistently, I manage to get good grades and have a fulfilling High School life. At that time I felt that life was easy, I felt like my purpose is clear and that is to pass High School. Some of you might be wondering, where did I get the motivation to study? Well I don't. I just felt responsible. “If you need inspiring words, don't do it.” -Elon Musk So, the conclusion is: 1. Be responsible at WHAT (tool: survive) 2. Be obsess with HOW (tool: passion) 3. Then you'll get to your WHY (tool: happiness) Example: 1. I am responsible to pass High School. 2. I am obsess with studying. 3. Outcome: I passed my High School and lived a fulfilling High School life. So, what now? Since I am now an undergraduate, I believe that my next step is to find money whilst college.
I am responsible to find money so I can survive.
I am obsess with my job as a salesperson.
Only by then, can I get married and live a fulfilling life.
That's it for now, I hope that this post will open your eyes in a new point of view. Until then, ta-ta! And thank you ☺️ -Emen
To launch its new product, LivenPay will be growing its own personal digital currency: LivenCoin, or LVN for short. For users of the Liven Cash system, credit will be migrated across in fiat fee for the launch of the new Liven, and all of the points people love about Liven Cash will remain, plus new features and amenities enabled through transitioning to a proper digital currency. LVN will feature as an intrinsic store of value across our network, and will have it’s very own internal exchange fee backed with the aid of the quantity of transactions made in real, brick-and-mortar businesses. This capability each token has a guaranteed purchasing electricity at over a thousand actual groups on launch day regardless of any arbitrary value the community may place on them. Users will be in a position to transact in fiat forex (AUD, USD) or LVN at all partnered merchants, and will obtain LVN for transacting as part of the sensible rewards network that we’ve built over the remaining four years. Merchant companions will be paid in fiat currency, or, if interested, can opt to get hold of repayments absolutely in LVN. TOKEN DETAILS SYMBOL: LVN Network: ethereum Token Type: ERC20 Decimal point: 18 General offer: 10,000,000,000 LVN Token price: $ 0.015 USD Total Sales: 30% (3,000,000,000) Host: USD, AUD, ETH Softcap: $ 10,000,000 USD Hardcap: $ 28,000,000 USD Jurisdiction: Australia Limited to: United States, China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Taiwan, and Indonesia For More Information You Can Visit Link Below : LivenPay : https://livenpay.io Whitepaper : https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/livenpay.io/LIVEN-WhitePaper(EN).pdf Instagram : https://instagram.com/livenpay Medium : https://medium.com/livenpay
Looking for US, Europe, Australia, Canada WhatsApp Groups to Exchange/Add to My Singapore & Malaysia Contacts Groups
I own serveral Business & Leisure WhatsApp Groups of varies interest. The people in my groups are mostly from Singapore, Malaysia & a few Indonesia numbers. Most of us are from Business Interest Groups e.g Biz World, IT DM Masterminds, Forex Discussion Forum, which I have made and attracted ppl to join my Leisure Groups like e.g Comedy, Singles, Crime & Horror Stories, Massage Exchange, Sex Education, Go Kart Racing. I would like to exchange entry to my groups with people in US, United Kingdom, Europe, Australia, Canada for those who have a great community of WhatsApp Group(s). If you are admin or know the admin of 1 Group which can add me, I'm willing to do 1 for 1 Exchange. We can also set up Mixed Countries Groups and make Good Communities for any niche & interest. Pls Contact me if you are interested. Thanks alot! P.S I need to verify that you are joining for good purposes, spamming & hardselling are not allowed in my Groups.
If interested in more non news categories, check the flair search on the sidebar. You can suggest ideas or pictures for the scrolling banner. This thread is not a replacement for messages regarding mod issues.
Added some new user flairs that have ethnic and continental focus, check them out. Chinese users specifically are encouraged to identify with flairs. On the right hand side underneath "Subreddit Info" Click "edit" and select flair.
Random fun fact, google search "sino" to see us among the top results.
"What is CIWO?" It is a database sub that contains sourced information on a variety of common topics about Chinese/China. Covers politics, military, history, myths, etc. See the Table of Contents to view the topics.
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We can discuss the creation/linking of subs here. Want a Sino affiliated sub dedicated to a specific subject or theme? Want a sub with far less mod oversight and rules? We have subs available. Regular Sino users can gather a few dedicated supporters and make a request/discuss here. Check out Asiancouples, AsianAmericans and EasternSunRising
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